The Jersey Shore beaches are sandy again. The roads are freshly paved. And a hip new brewery is nearby. But Joe Sandomeno, the co-owner of Shore Point Motel in Point Pleasant Beach, couldn'ttake it anymore.
He pulledout his smartphone to show a video of a recent television weather forecast that illustrated the chance of a late-afternoon storm with flashing digital lightning bolts, sure to strike someone dead dare they venture outside,and he wondered: Isn't that overdoing it just a tad?
The ominous weather forecasts are "an obstacle we have to jump over every summer," Sandomeno said. "We need almost perfect weather to get peopleto come down here sometimes.”
More:Jersey Shore beaches: How safe was the water of summer 2018?
More:Jersey Shore tourism: Rain, faulty forecasts cursed by business owners
The Jersey Shore's summer tourism season kicks off this weekend, and the pieces are in place for a smash hit. The economy is rolling. Consumers are brushing off higher gas prices. And a new Shake Shackis open at theGarden State Parkway's revamped Monmouth rest stop.
Full steam ahead? Don't be ridiculous.
The Shore's tourism business operators say they will need help, not only from Mother Nature, but also fromvisitors who are drawn to the weather forecasts like they are the final episode of "Game of Thrones."
The forecasts could change, industry operators say.
"Alot of times what we see is peopleare scared away fromeven showing up," said Amber LaFrance, director of sales and marketing for Ocean Place Resort & Spa in Long Branch. "You see those dark clouds when it was 20 seconds of an afternoon, and then it turned into a great, beautifulsunshine."
It is easy to understand their angst. The Jersey Shore is trying to improve on what was a miserable 2018 season, when dreary forecasts and rainouts were the norm.
The industry generated $7.4 billion in sales last year in Ocean and Monmouth counties, virtually flat from the previous year, according to a report by Tourism Economics, a research firm.
But, like opening day in baseball, hope abounds.
What's changed at the Jersey Shore since you were here last?
1. Places
The Shore's reputation as a fist-pumping, occasionally unruly, vacation spot, was stamped in the 2000s with MTV's "Jersey Shore." Is that changing?
The Bamboo Bar in Seaside Heights, home toan infamous brawl during the reality show, remains open, but its owner filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy over the winter.
And Sandy Hook, the national park,banned alcohol out of safety concerns.
More:From 29 countries, new citizens at Sandy Hook are all Americans now
More:Sandy Hook: 7 miles of beaches
Meanwhile, hip, millennial-friendly spots are opening. In Long Branch, Wave Resort, a boutique hotel, is open. So is the WhiteChapel Project, a restaurant and brewery in a redeveloped warehouse across Ocean Avenue. And the WindMill was demolished to make way for condominiums, but it re-opened a few blocks to the north.
Asbury Park is continuing its renaissance.The swanky Asbury Ocean Club Hotel is scheduled to open this summer.Restaurateur Tim McLoone openedthe Iron Whale on the boardwalk. And Maruca's Tomato Pies, a Seaside Heights institution, opened a pizza place in the Fourth Avenue Pavilion.
Other gathering places won't return. The Seaside Heights carouselis being dismantled a year short of its 100th birthday. And theNorth End Pavilion in Ocean Grove, home to stores and a food hall overlooking the sea, was destroyed by a fire last month.
2. Beaches and bridges
The Shore's calling card isback.
The Army Corps of Engineers is putting the finishing touches on a replenishment project stretching from Point Pleasant Beach to Island Beach State Park that is expected to make the beach up to 300 feet wider, said Stewart Farrell, director of the Stockton UniversityCoastal Research Center in Galloway.
The condition of the beaches "has never been better," Farrell said.
Getting to the beach should be easier, too. The highlight? The $319 million project to repair and replace the bridge connecting Stafford to Long Beach Island is essentially complete after seven years.
"Every year (since Sandy), it’s been something to deter people," said Mike Colombo, owner of Right Coast Surf Shop in Seaside Park. "This year there’s nothing. We’re wide open for business."
3. Summer rentals
Looking for a place to stay? That got complicated.
New Jersey last fall began requiring owners who put their homes, or rooms, up for short-term stays to collect the state's 6.625 sales tax and 5 percent occupancy tax. Municipalities also can collect taxes of up to 3 percent.
It was designed to put online sites such asAirbnbandVRBO on equal footingwith hotels and motels. But it also snagged owners who rent their homes directly to visitors — a common practice at the Shore — unless they use a Realtor.
Lawmakers have introduced bills to exempt homeowners who don't use an online site. But it has yet to pass, meaning visitors using summer rentals face sharp price increases.
"We share our homes with the same families yearafter year," said Duane Watlington, founder ofVacation Rentals Jersey Shore, who rents out property in Ship Bottom and the Brant Beach section of Long Beach Township. "Now,all of a sudden,the cost of their vacation went up 12 percent."
4. Minimum wage
New Jersey's minimum wage is set to rise from $8.85 an hour to $10 an hour on July 1 as part of an incremental increase to $15 an hour by 2024.
The Shore's tourism businesses— defined mainly as those that make most of their revenue during the summer— are exempt this year. But they willneedto pay at least $10.30 anhour beginning Jan. 1, 2020, and then increase wageseach year until they reach $15 an hour in 2026.
Employers, however, said they have other hiring obstacles. The state's unemployment rate is3.9 percent, down from 4.3 percent from the same time last year.
"The biggest issue is finding staff," said Brian Fecho, owner of White Oak Market in Seaside Park.
More:Great Adventure, Jenkinson's and Casino Pier to hire nearly 5,000 for summer
More:NJ tourism: Jersey Shore deals with long lines, not enough workers
5. Forecasts on demand
Nearly 75 percent of Americans said they plan to take a road trip this summer, even though gas prices have posted their biggest seasonal surge since 2011, according to GasBuddy.com, which tracks prices.
And they're traveling farther. Some 42 percent plan to drive more than 500 miles round trip, compared with 31 percent last year, the survey said.
But the Shore's business owners know the season begins and ends with the weather. And in that respect, nothing has changed, except technology that puts the five-day outlook within a finger's touch.
One Wednesday afternoon in, say, July, a potential visitor fromNorth Jersey is going to check on the weekend weather forecast and see an icon of a cloud with a raindrop and a lightning bolt.
What will they do?
"The reality is, people look at pictures, not the weather," Joe Sandomeno said. "I do the same thing. But they're just misleading, and I think peopleare taking them the wrong way. I think the chance of a 15, 20 percent shower, peopleare taking as washouts and it’s affecting the Shore."
Michael L. Diamond is an award-winning reporter who has been writing about theJersey Shore's economy for 20 years. He can be reached at 732-643-4038; mdiamond@gannettnj.com; or @mdiamondapp.
